🚀 Phase 1 — Live on Hetzner

🧪 Beta — experimental software

Your autonomous agent
for Polymarket

An AI that observes 150+ prediction markets, simulates strategies for 4 weeks, and only asks for your approval before trading with real money.

Access dashboard → How it works

No real trading without your explicit "ACTIVAR" via Telegram.

⚠️ Beta software. Currently in Phase 1 (observation only — no real trades). Use at your own risk. Past simulation results do not guarantee future performance.

Process

4 phases, full control

The agent learns before it operates. Each phase has an exit criterion — and Phase 4 only starts with your explicit confirmation.

👁️

Observe

2 weeks collecting data on 150+ markets every 5 minutes. Builds a knowledge base of volatility, liquidity and correlations.

≥200 markets · ≥14 days

🎮

Simulate

Paper trading with $4,000 fictitious USDC. 4 strategies run in parallel. Every decision is logged and analysed.

$1,000 / strategy · ≥20 trades

📊

Evaluate

Claude Sonnet analyses all metrics — win rate, Sharpe, drawdown — and sends a full report to your Telegram.

Win rate ≥55% · Sharpe ≥0.8

🚀

Operate

Real trading. Only starts after you reply "ACTIVAR" on Telegram. Uses your own Polygon wallet and API keys.

Human approval required

Trading

4 quantitative strategies

Each strategy has a clearly defined signal, position size, and exit rule. All decisions are validated by Claude Sonnet before execution.

💎

Value

Buys when the market price deviates >8% from the estimated probability. Sells on convergence.

Up to 15% per trade

⚡

Info Arbitrage

Exploits correlation lag: when market A moves 4%+ and correlated market B hasn't reacted in 15 min.

10% fixed

🔄

Mean Reversion

Buys sharp dips (z-score <-2.5) in predictable markets. Only in markets with R² >0.6.

12% per trade

📈

Momentum

Follows sustained positive trends ≥3h with above-average volume confirmation. Linear regression signal.

10% per trade

Risk management

7 immutable rules

The risk manager runs before every trade — simulated or real. These limits cannot be overridden by any strategy or AI decision.

🔒

15% max

per position

📋

8 max

open positions

📉

5% daily loss

stops trading for the day

🛑

20% drawdown

pauses all trading

💧

$500 min

market liquidity

⏰

1 day min

to market close

⚖️

40% max

per strategy

Technology

Built for reliability

Every external call has retry logic and graceful fallback. The main process never crashes — even if Claude or Telegram are temporarily unavailable.

Python 3.11 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Haiku 4.5 Flask 3 SQLite + WAL Docker Polymarket Gamma API Polymarket CLOB API Telegram Bot API web3.py Polygon Nginx GitHub Actions

Who we are

Behind the project

A personal research project to explore systematic edge in prediction markets using AI-assisted decision making.

👨‍💻

Alberto Rodríguez Martín

Software Engineer & Data Engineer · Tenerife

Professional with extensive experience in data engineering, backend development and automated information systems. Specialised in data pipelines, heterogeneous source integration and data-driven web platforms.

Built this project to systematically explore edge in prediction markets — combining quantitative strategies with Claude's reasoning capabilities.

@albertormweb